[Patrick Vallance]Thank you can I have the first slide please![vallance-slide1.png](07:24 ⠶ Estimates of COVID-19 incidence in England)
So just to recap at the moment,These are three different ways of looking at it from different studiesor the consensus group from the modellers [SPI-M]of the number of people everyday with COVIDcatching COVID newand it's 50,000 plus most likely is the number.and perhaps half a million people or more overall with the disease
next slide please![vallance-slide2.png](07:43 ⠶ R estimates over time for the UK)
the R was relatively flat and below onebelow the red line means the epidemic is shrinkingabove the red line means it's growingand you can see from August onwardsthe R went above one.The epidemic grew and continues to growso although some of the measures that are in place have eased off,perhaps the rate of growth, it's still growing.And that growth from a high base line means numbers get very big quite quickly
Because of this continued R above onethe modelling group asked a number of academic groups to create scenariosas to to what might happenon assumptions that R stays above one and goes between 1.3, 1.5and possibly upover the course of the winterand the next slide shows the early working from 2 weeks ago of some of those groups.
![vallance-slide3.png](08:35 ⠶ WINTER SCENARIOS FROM EARLY WORKING ANALYSIS—England daily deaths if no changes in policy or behaviour)
Looking at deaths in England over the winter periodSo this is early workscenarios looking at this on the assumptions of RDifferent groups (and as you can see) different groups come up with different answersdepending on their models.But what is clear from all of themin terms of deaths over the winter,there's a potential for this to be twice as bad or more(in terms of the first wavecompared to the first wave)
So the models are clearly showing that this could be the casein the scenarios presented here
I want to move though from scenariosto now looking at the six-week projections,which are more based on data nowand have greater certaintythan you can ever get when you're looking months ahead
This shows the hospital daily admissionsyou can see the first peak on the left-hand sideand then over to the right hand side,you come up to date todayand then the projections forward over the next 6 weeks,and this is a consensus view across a number of modelling groupsand what you can see here is a projection that over the next 6 weeks into early December,the numbers exceed the numbers of hospitalisations in the first wave peak
and as Chris has already said in some hospitals you see that already,but this suggests across the country as a whole,we would see thissome hospitals earlier than others,some a bit laterbut this is the projection in terms of hospital admissions over the next 6 weekswith the uncertainties in the shaded blue area
next slide please![vallance-slide4.png](10:18 ⠶ England — daily deaths to date with SPI-M medium term projection for the next six weeks)
inevitably hospitalisations lead unfortunately to deaths in some peopleagain you can see the first wave on the left-hand sideand the dotted line indicates the top of the first waveand on the right hand side,you can see the projection from today going forward in the blueand again the light blue indicates the uncertainty range,but what you can see is the model suggests increasing(the modelsthis is a consensus across models)suggest increasing deaths over the next 6 weeksso that by the beginning of December(the 8th of December)this is very close to the first wave peakif nothing is done
now clearly if you stop the R from increasingif you allow the R to come down,then you would flatten this off and then potentially reverse itbut on the current trajectorythat is what is thought to be the prediction for deaths over the next 6 weeks,and of course that would continue to go upbecause the hospitalisations already exceeded the first wave peakby this time deaths would followso unfortunately, it's a very grim picturein terms of what this looks likein the absence of action and continued growth
next slide please![vallance-slide5.png](11:38 ⠶ England new SPI-M combined projection bed usage)
this is a complicated slide.It's from the NHS and it shows what the impact of this would be on NHS beds
so on the left hand side is acute hospital bedsand on the right hand side is ventilator beds.It's the same curve you've just seenso the first peak on the left and then the projection on the rightso the projections (that I've just shown you) leadwhen the NHS do their bed calculationsas peak usage being exceeded on the 20th of November,(that's obviously not a precise estimate,but where this would fall on average)that the extra available beds would then be exceeded a couple of days later 3 days laterand then extra capacity caused by having to postponeunfortunately all the things that nobody wants to postponegets exceeded some time later in Decemberand a similar picture is seen on ventilator bedswhere the peak gets reached at the (towards the end of) Novemberor in December
the currently available get reached a little bit earlier,so this is a picture of what the NHS pressures would look likeunder the scenarios that are in the 6-week projection
I'll hand back to you Prime Minister.